Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Some Thots on Financial Market

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Some Thots on Financial Market
We are currently seeing some unusual behaviour in the financial markets. Normally stock market and US dollar have negative correlations. This means that when stock market is falling, US dollar will rise. But now we are seeing US dollar rising and yet stock market remains resilient. So either USD is wrong or stock market is wrong.
My view is that stock market is wrong. That means we think that stock market should be falling soon. We are now sitting on a lot of cash waiting for the next buying opportunity for stocks.
In the area of forex, the strengthening of USDJPY is driven by spike in US treasury yield. The spike is caused by series of good US economic data and prediction that QE3 is no longer needed. We beg to differ. We believe that US economic is still long term weak but short term strong. Hence we think that US treasury yield will fall and USDJPY will fall as well, resulting in recovery of Japanese yen. We are still holding onto our sell US dollar and buy Japanese yen trade.
We are the few market participants who are bullish on the European situation. History tells us that most or all credit crisis will eventually be resolved; It is a matter of time and the amount of money pumped into the troubled economy. Few weeks ago, IMF has agreed to pump in money into Europe, this increase our confidence that we are near to the end of this crisis. To profit from this view, we have long Euro and sell Sterling Pound.
We have also buy Swiss Franc and sell US dollar. So why are we buying Swiss Franc? Swiss Franc and Euro are pegged. So if Euro recovers, Swiss Franc will recover as well. In addition, Switzerland is in much better shape than the members of Euro zone. This means that if the EUR/CHF peg is removed, it will create double booster to the Swiss Franc.
China has announced some weak economic data. This has helped to push AUD and NZD lower. To us this is good news rather than bad news, because this gives us good opportunity to buy AUD and NZD at cheaper price. When the buying opportunity comes, we will send email to inform our learn forex students. We think that market has underestimated the economic of China. We are optimistic on China in the long term.
In the area of stock market, as mentioned above, we think that market has temporary peaked. Last year we are most bullish on US market, so we had been accumulating US stocks since December. We had sold most of our US stocks already. This year we are most bullish on Hong Kong market. So if there is a correction, we will be buying Hong Kong stocks and Hang Seng ETF. Reason is because China government has already started to reduce Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR), this will help to support China economy. Hong Kong stocks are relatively cheaper compared to US. When the buying opportunity comes, we will send emails to our learn investing students.
We are still holding onto a China lottery stock. We believe that China has a growing affluent population who are interested to try their luck in lottery. This stock  remains undiscovered by the investment community and it offers 50% upside potential.
Talk to you again.


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